Hi James and apologies for such a delayed reply. This is my first day off in many weeks and the rest of this week is booked out. It will be a nice break though to write the below...
Scott's comment seems to have been missed but we'll come back to that.
It's not correct that with "no-chill," a 30 minute addition becomes a 45-50 min addition. I haven't clicked on the links above as I've been aware of this "argument" since it first arose maybe a decade ago now. The graphic in your post is an example of how a very complex area can be over-simplified. These arguments and graphics totally ignore the most important question of all, "What chilling method are they comparing too?"
Before reading further, study,
Chilling Myths - Asking the Right Questions. I mentioned it in a prior post I'm sure??? It's a six year old post but read it before proceeding!!!
For a Start, We Have No Clear Definitions on Chilling
Let's call a chilling method that employs a chilling apparatus, "active chilling," and a chilling method that relies solely on ambient temperature, "passive chilling."
Even within those two categories, there are several methods. Active chilling could be using an immersion chiller, a counter-flow chiller, a plate chiller, a swimming pool or snow. Passive chilling could be letting the wort cool overnight in the kettle or transferring it hot to a cube and letting it cool in that.
With "active chilling, there are many variations on how it can be employed. It may be employed immediately after flame-out or 40 minutes later.
On top of all that, with active chilling, regardless of at what time it is employed, there will be differences. For example, an immersion chiller affects the temperature of the whole wort whilst a plate-chiller or counter-flow chiller dramatically drops the temperature of the wort but only a small portion of it in each moment.
Does it Matter?
Depending on the beer style, I think it can matter a great deal. For many styles, the chilling method used and when it is employed will be hardly noticeable, In other styles, it could produce two different beers.
One thing I know for sure is that attempts by software etc to adjust for "no-chill" is a caveman response. We all love to make things black and white and turn things into numbers however, brewing software would better serve us to have fields that allowed the brewer to describe their chilling method and how and when it was used rather than "inventing" formulas that attempt to adjust the least complex of hop contributions, bitterness.
There are no formulas for flavour and aroma. The only hope we have on this is by giving better descriptions of how we handle our hops.
I think the American saying is, "All the rest is moonshine."
Scott's Comment
Scott knows a heap on hops. He's forked out his own money to send his beers for IBU testing, investigated aging of hops etc, etc. He's been on a quest to try and "numerise" hops but he's the first to write that the more he's learned, the less he knows. Correct me if I'm wrong on this [mention]Scott[/mention] but he might even say now something like, "Saying that all varieties of hops work the same way is a bit like saying slow-cooked beef tastes the same as slow-cooked chicken."
I find his post above very important. Here's just a bit of it...
Scott wrote: ↑5 years ago
You report having had undrinkable bitter beer after late hops that sat in the no-chill container... leaving vegetative matter in the wort for a long time.
Scott's questions in that post are important. You mentioned the beer was undrinkable. Perhaps there was so much vegative matter in the beer, it was rotting? But you haven't indicated to Scott how much matter was in the beer and for how long so, as he said, it's hard to draw conclusions.
You also mentioned about storing cubes almost indefinitely. Well, I've done that. Yes, fresh wort kits are the same as passive chilling in a cube however, there is a shelf life. I've kept some cubes for well over a year without failure. Others have failed mainly I think due to the seals becoming unstable over use but....
One thing I noticed for sure is that the wort gets darker over time and quite dramatically. (From memory, [mention]BobBrews[/mention] even posted pics of this somewhere here. So, a straw coloured brew will become orange to copper within months.
And, these are on brews that are transferred quite cleanly into the cube. I suspect but don't know (and I've brewed a lot) that an increase in vegetative matter into the cube is not going to have any positive effect.
Now, to You
It's been a busy month for me. You've sent me some emails which I've only had time to scan. I'll look forward to reading them properly when I get some solitude. A scan of your emails though amazed me.
Whilst "new to the business," you are brewing styles that are very difficult. This is truly impressive! In fact, they are quite "arty" styles so there's no real rule book for them, just your mouth and nose.
So, for you, don't get hung up on the numbers/calculations. Do though, for now, record what you do as well as you can. That's important.
Pat